A guide to betting on footballThe phrase ‘there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, popularized by Mark Twain the author of Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, is often used when governments try to reinforce weak arguments with statistics. Not so when it comes to soccer betting. This guide to football (soccer) betting describes how you can use vital statistics to predict the outcome of football matches so that you win more than you lose. Betting on sporting events is more fun if you win, right?Between 1% and 5% of all the people who bet on sports win. Out of all those billions of dollars only a very small amount is ever paid as winnings. Bookmakers have access to the best sources of information. They know how many goals have been scored at home and away, corners conceded and won, fouls made and the list goes on. Based on this information they can compile very precise odds for the games that are played. Using the same information it is possible to turn the tables on the bookmakers. To avoid getting too involved with probabilities, variance and other scary statistical terms you can just take a basic approach by looking at some simple numbers.A basic way to use this information would be to look at freely available data on a website like soccerway.com or the statistics section of the bookmaker StanJames’ website. Using the numbers for goals scored in games played home and away you can calculate average goals scored and conceded with certain match ups. How do you choose which match ups to bet on? A good betting market to choose from would be the goals over / under market. You bet whether there will be more or less than 2 goals. Look for teams who are good in attack and teams poor in defence. Using the numbers: teams good in attack are obviously ones who score more goals, but also who win more corners. Look for high goals and corners conceded for teams poor in defence. For example, Manchester United have a solid defence and are also good in attack. Playing against teams both poor in attack and with average defence, such as Sunderland, you have a recipe for high goal totals. In which case go for an overs goal bet. If Man United are playing Chelsea or Arsenal, these teams being comparable in terms of attacking prowess and defence capabilities, how many goals do you think there will be? If you’d guessed a lower goal total you’d be right. How does using this technique work in practice? Very well if you avoid games where key players are injured, which could affect the probabilities. In addition a thought needs to be spared for which bookmaker to use. Using systems like this increase your chances of getting more winning bets. One major factor in any betting strategy is the odds or price available for placing these bets. Bookmakers have to make a profit which will always affect profits.
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